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제목 [No. 214 Opinion] South Korea's position in the fluctuating international community
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Professor in the department of Public Administration Jae-seung Shim


The major factor in predicting Koreas position in the international community is the U.S. presidential election at the end of this year. President Trump's mind will be filled with calculations for his re-election victory, as it is the economy that becomes the strongest card for an incumbent president.


Under favorable economic conditions, the incumbent president is less likely to lose, but the U.S. economy has been hit hard by the COVID-19 and there is no prospect of sudden improvement.


For President Trump, the remaining card is a hard-line policy against China. The U.S. feels that China, which is expanding its influence in the world, is a threat, and Anti-Chinese sentiment in the U.S. is growing. Thus, in this current U.S.-China confrontation, it is Hong Kong and Taiwan that hold the key.


So far, Hong Kong has been recognized for its high degree of autonomy and free capitalism under the "one-country two-systems," policy, a feature that was working in Chinas favor. But when China attempted to implement an extradition bill in Hong Kong, the violent protests that started last year may have taken China by surprise, impelling a sense of crisis. This hard-line attempt at transplanting China's mainland legal system into Hong Kong was perceived by the world as a part of Chinafication and a degradation of Hong Kongs autonomy.


In defiance of this, the U.S. has already strengthened sanctions against both China and Hong Kong, for example by suspending trade and preferential treatment agreements in the latter province.


Furthermore, sanctions against China have also developed through restricting Chinese companies' listing into the U.S. stock market and banning BATX tech giants such as Tencent from transactions with U.S. companies. This will undoubtedly result in retaliation of some form as China will start developing countermeasures.


Yet Hong Kong is not the only issue, as Taiwan holds the other piece to this puzzle. If Taiwan chooses the direction of independence due to the deterioration of the situation in Hong Kong, the current military tensions that exist in the South China Sea may escalate.


It is highly unlikely that President Trump will heighten tensions enough to result in wartime, but the public perception of him in such a scenario would likely be very positive. However, due to his hard-line policy, the U.S. has no choice but to react to China's threatening actions. Stuck in this spiral of retaliation, it is difficult to imagine how the cycle will end.


When the confrontation between the U.S. and China intensifies, it is our country that is most affected. China is the largest market for our country, but our security is dependent on the United States.


If the U.S. and China are in a serious conflict, Korea, which is in an alliance that shares democratic values with America, will have no choice but to side with the U.S. That would deal a heavy blow to economic relations with China. It is time to seriously think about what choices our country should make.

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