언론사

Department of Public Administration Professor Jae-Seung Shim
 

As COVID-19 has spread, so does our fear of unknown. There are now familiar scenes in public places around the world of people trying to open doors with their elbows, avoid grabbing a handle, pressing lift button with a stick, and office workers rubbing down their desks each morning.


The novel coronavirus has changed how we think, work and act. Social distancing is being pursued which means: schools are closing, universities are teaching online, churches are broadcasting online services, business travel is cutting down, borders are being locked down, sports leagues have been canceled, and work from home has been enforced.


In the areas worst hit by the COVID-19, teams of workers in protective gear have been dispatched to spray a fog of disinfectant into contaminated areas, parks and public streets.


Efforts to clean in offices, hospitals, shops and restaurants have also been reignited. In some cities, volunteers even venture out at night to scrub the keypads of cash and vending machines.


Social customs and systems are inertial; whether they apply to individuals or orgnisations, they are very difficult to change. Over time, companies develop into complex and bureaucratic structures, with so many embedded routines that have been so constant for decades or even centuries.


Societies follow a largely path-dependent trajectory as well. This means that they usually resist radical change, and instead follow a predictable path until a shock event occurs.


However, in times of fundamental crisis, an opportunity for change opens up. Sometimes, this chance leads to a purposefully acceleration of the naturally slow progression in societal customs. Socio-political change often occurs in sudden bursts: a social system remains stable for a long period of time, until an external shock disrupts it which sets in motion a paradigm shift.


For example, President Moon, after watching the movie “Pandora”, which focused on the impact of a nuclear power plant explosion on society, introduced a policy to discontinue Korea’s reliance on nuclear power energy, which not only lasted for over 50 years, but also played an active role in a period of rapid economic development for South Korea.


COVID-19 might well be such an external shock, fundamentally reshaping some, if not all areas of how we live our lives. Rather than simply bouncing back and reverting to the pre-coronavirus state, some changes may be persistent. Indeed, changes brought about by coronavirus might well prove much more long-lasting than currently anticipated, leading to a new normal.


For example, it is certainly true that face-to-face meetings for business can help build relationships and trust which is often crucial for making a project succeed. But since businesses and other organisations are being forced to radically reduce or stop business travel, they may realise that it’s not so essential after all, as long as they find working substitutes.


Now that employees have to rely on Skype or Kakao Face calls, rather than flying around the globe to meet in person, they may realise that video conferencing is an appropriate alternative. Employers, meanwhile, will find the possibility for radical cost-cutting. So in the future, we might see significantly less business travel.


We can also find other fields where the change will be equally dramatic and possibly even desirable. For example, universities have been reluctant and slow in moving into the online teaching space before COVID-19. They are now being forced to deliver not only online teaching but also assessment online.


There are huge opportunities offered by online education in terms of new markets for students and cheaper delivery thanks to economies of scale. As a result, it may be that once the appropriate online infrastructure are in place, universities will be unlikely to revert back to the previous status quo fully.


Change happens abruptly, and coronavirus may constitute one such external shock transforming parts of our lives. While we may think or desire that the current changes to our live are temporary, we would do well to reconsider and perhaps prepare for a new normal instead.